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Relative valuation derived from Energy sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 26.8GRADE F
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
52.5%
Sector: 6.7%
Dividend Analysis audit
No Dividend
This company does not currently pay a dividend.
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) receives a "Buy" rating with a composite score of 53.0/100, ranked #70 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 27/100, Value 62/100, Momentum 74/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does SUNCOR ENERGY INC Do?
Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company. The company primarily focuses on developing petroleum resource basins in Canada's Athabasca oil sands; explores, acquires, develops, produces, transports, refines, and markets crude oil in Canada and internationally; markets petroleum and petrochemical products under the Petro-Canada name primarily in Canada. It operates through Oil Sands; Exploration and Production; Refining and Marketing; and Corporate and Eliminations segments. The Oil Sands segment recovers bitumen from mining and in situ operations, and upgrades it into refinery feedstock and diesel fuel, or blends the bitumen with diluent for direct sale to market. The Exploration and Production segment is involved in offshore operations off the east coast of Canada and in the North Sea; and operating onshore assets in Libya and Syria. The Refining and Marketing segment refines crude oil and intermediate feedstock into various petroleum and petrochemical products; and markets refined petroleum products to retail, commercial, and industrial customers through its other retail sellers. The Corporate and Eliminations segment operates four wind farms in Ontario and Western Canada. The company also markets and trades in crude oil, natural gas, byproducts, refined products, and power. The company was formerly known as Suncor Inc. and changed its name to Suncor Energy Inc. in April 1997. Suncor Energy Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector, specifically within the Petroleum And Natural Gas industry. The company is led by CEO Kris P. Smith and employs approximately 16,600 people, headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. With a market capitalization of $79.1B, SU is one of the prominent companies in the Energy sector.
SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) Stock Rating — Buy (April 2026)
As of April 2026, SUNCOR ENERGY INC receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 53.0/100 and 4 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.SU ranks #70 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Energy sector, SUNCOR ENERGY INC ranks #9 of 128 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Energy peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
SU Stock Price and 52-Week Range
SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) currently trades at $65.90. The 52-week high for SU is $63.96, which means the stock is currently trading 3.0% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $30.79, putting the stock 114.0% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 0 shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is SU Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) carries a value factor score of 62/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 17.49x, compared to the Energy sector average of 20.66x — a discount of 15%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 2.34x, versus the sector average of 1.76x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.50x, compared to 0.49x for the average Energy stock. On an enterprise value basis, SU trades at 1.60x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.73x for the sector.
Overall, SU's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
SUNCOR ENERGY INC Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) earns a quality factor score of 27/100, signaling below-average profitability metrics relative to the broader market. The return on equity (ROE) is 52.5%, compared to the Energy sector average of 6.7%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 26.3% versus the sector average of 3.7%.
On a margin basis, SUNCOR ENERGY INC reports gross margins of 58.9%, compared to 52.7% for the sector. The operating margin is 16.5% (sector: 10.7%). Net profit margin stands at 11.3%, versus 6.4% for the average Energy stock. Profitability is below benchmark levels, which may reflect industry headwinds, elevated reinvestment, or structural challenges.
SU Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
SUNCOR ENERGY INC has a debt-to-equity ratio of 99.0%, compared to the Energy sector average of 55.0%. Leverage is within a manageable range for the industry, though investors should monitor debt trends over time. The current ratio is 1.39x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $9.09B. Cash and equivalents stand at $2.66B.
SU has a beta of 0.65, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for SUNCOR ENERGY INC is 84/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
SUNCOR ENERGY INC Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, SUNCOR ENERGY INC reported revenue of $38.20B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.54. Net income for the quarter was $4.32B. Gross margin was 58.9%. Operating income came in at $7.01B.
In FY 2025, SUNCOR ENERGY INC reported revenue of $38.20B. Net income for the quarter was $4.32B. Gross margin was 58.9%. Revenue grew 0.2% year-over-year compared to FY 2024.
In FY 2024, SUNCOR ENERGY INC reported revenue of $38.11B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.28. Net income for the quarter was $4.18B. Gross margin was 57.5%. Revenue grew -3.6% year-over-year compared to FY 2023. Operating income came in at $7.01B.
In FY 2023, SUNCOR ENERGY INC reported revenue of $39.54B and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.80. Net income for the quarter was $6.28B. Gross margin was 59.1%. Revenue grew -14.9% year-over-year compared to FY 2022. Operating income came in at $8.98B.
Over the past 8 quarters, SUNCOR ENERGY INC has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $30.05B to $38.20B. Investors analyzing SU stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
SU Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among growth-oriented companies in the Petroleum And Natural Gas industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Energy dividend stocks may want to explore other Energy stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
SU Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) has a momentum factor score of 74/100, indicating strong price momentum with the stock outperforming the majority of the market over recent periods. Stocks with high momentum scores have historically tended to continue their outperformance in the near term. The investment factor score is 40/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 48/100 reflects moderate short selling activity.
SU vs Competitors — Energy Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing SU against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full SU vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how SUNCOR ENERGY INC stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
SU Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy SU? — Investment Thesis Summary
The bull case for SUNCOR ENERGY INC rests on several quantitative strengths. The quality score of 27/100 flags below-average profitability. The value score of 62/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 74/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 84/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) earns a Buy rating with a composite score of 53.0/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on SU stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingBuy
Sections
Executive Summary
Suncor Energy Inc. is currently rated as a Hold, reflecting a balanced view of its strengths and weaknesses. While the company exhibits compelling value metrics and strong momentum, concerns surrounding its quality (profitability and returns) and investment (capital allocation and growth) temper our enthusiasm. The primary takeaway is that Suncor's integrated business model provides a degree of stability, but operational execution and capital discipline are critical for unlocking further shareholder value.
The company's attractive valuation, as evidenced by its lower P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios compared to the sector, is offset by a relatively low Quality score and a history of volatile free cash flow. While Suncor's Stability score is high, indicating lower volatility, the overall composite score suggests that the stock is fairly priced at current levels, warranting a Hold rating until clearer signs of improved operational performance and capital allocation emerge.
Business Strategy & Overview
Suncor Energy operates as an integrated energy company, with a primary focus on developing petroleum resource basins in Canada's Athabasca oil sands. This integration spans from upstream extraction and upgrading to downstream refining and marketing, providing a diversified revenue stream. The company's Oil Sands segment is the cornerstone of its operations, involving the recovery of bitumen through both mining and in-situ methods. This bitumen is then either upgraded into refinery feedstock and diesel fuel or blended with diluent for direct sale to market. This segment is capital intensive but offers substantial long-term production potential.
The Exploration and Production segment diversifies Suncor's geographic footprint, with offshore operations off the east coast of Canada and in the North Sea, as well as onshore assets in Libya and Syria. However, these international assets also introduce geopolitical risks and operational complexities. The Refining and Marketing segment, operating under the Petro-Canada brand, refines crude oil and intermediate feedstock into various petroleum and petrochemical products, which are then marketed to retail, commercial, and industrial customers primarily in Canada. This segment provides a stable source of revenue and helps to mitigate the volatility of crude oil prices.
Suncor's strategic positioning as an integrated player allows it to capture value across the entire energy value chain. The company's focus on the oil sands provides a long-life, albeit high-cost, resource base. However, the company faces increasing scrutiny regarding its environmental impact and the carbon intensity of its oil sands operations. Suncor is investing in technologies to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, but these investments require significant capital and may not fully offset the environmental concerns.
The company also engages in marketing and trading crude oil, natural gas, byproducts, refined products, and power, further diversifying its revenue streams and providing opportunities to optimize its asset portfolio. Suncor's four wind farms in Ontario and Western Canada, operated through the Corporate and Eliminations segment, represent a small but growing part of its renewable energy portfolio. However, the company's core business remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, and its long-term success will depend on its ability to adapt to the evolving energy landscape and reduce its carbon footprint.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Gross Margin
Core pricing power
58.9%
Sector: 52.7%
+12% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Suncor's economic moat can be classified as Narrow. While the company possesses certain advantages, they are not insurmountable and are subject to various industry and regulatory pressures. The primary source of Suncor's moat stems from its integrated operations and the scale of its oil sands assets. The capital-intensive nature of oil sands development creates a barrier to entry for new competitors, and Suncor's established infrastructure and expertise provide a competitive edge.
However, the cost advantages associated with Suncor's operations are not as pronounced as those of some of its peers. The extraction and upgrading of bitumen from oil sands are inherently expensive processes, and Suncor's operating costs have historically been higher than those of some of its competitors. This cost disadvantage limits the company's ability to generate consistently high returns on capital.
The Petro-Canada brand provides a degree of intangible asset value, particularly in the Canadian market. The brand is well-recognized and enjoys a loyal customer base. However, the brand's value is not as strong as that of some other consumer-facing brands, and it does not provide a significant competitive advantage in the broader energy market.
Suncor's integrated business model, while providing diversification, also creates operational complexities and potential inefficiencies. The company must effectively manage its upstream, midstream, and downstream operations to maximize value. Any disruptions or inefficiencies in one part of the value chain can have a ripple effect throughout the entire organization.
Furthermore, the increasing focus on environmental sustainability and the transition to a low-carbon economy pose a significant threat to Suncor's moat. The carbon intensity of oil sands production is a major concern for investors and regulators, and Suncor faces increasing pressure to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The company's ability to adapt to the changing energy landscape and invest in cleaner technologies will be crucial for maintaining its competitive position.
In conclusion, while Suncor benefits from its scale, integrated operations, and brand recognition, its cost structure, operational complexities, and environmental challenges limit the strength of its economic moat to Narrow. The company's long-term success will depend on its ability to improve its operational efficiency, reduce its carbon footprint, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape.
Financial Health & Profitability
Suncor's financial health presents a mixed picture. While the company has demonstrated strong revenue generation in recent years, profitability and free cash flow have been volatile. The company's revenue has fluctuated significantly, reflecting the cyclical nature of the energy industry and the impact of commodity price volatility. The revenue of $38.20B for FY2025 is comparable to FY2024's $38.11B, but lower than FY2023's $39.54B and FY2022's $46.49B, highlighting this volatility.
Net income has also been inconsistent, with a significant loss in FY2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent recovery in subsequent years. The net income of $4.32B in FY2025 is lower than the $6.28B and $6.71B reported in FY2023 and FY2022, respectively. This volatility in net income reflects the impact of commodity prices, refining margins, and operational performance on Suncor's bottom line.
Free cash flow has been particularly volatile, with a negative FCF of $-41.18B in FY2024, contrasting sharply with the positive FCF of $2.57B in FY2025 and the strong FCF generation in FY2023 and FY2022. This volatility in free cash flow raises concerns about Suncor's ability to consistently generate cash to fund its capital expenditures, dividends, and share repurchases. The large negative FCF in FY2024 warrants further investigation to understand the underlying drivers.
Suncor's ROE of 52.5% significantly exceeds the sector average of 6.9%, indicating strong profitability relative to its equity base. However, this high ROE may be partially attributable to the company's leverage, as evidenced by its debt-to-equity ratio of 99.00, which is higher than the sector average of 55.00. While leverage can amplify returns, it also increases financial risk.
The company's gross margin of 58.9% and operating margin of 16.5% are both higher than the sector averages of 55.1% and 10.6%, respectively, indicating that Suncor is more efficient at converting revenue into profit than its peers. However, these margins have fluctuated over time, reflecting the impact of commodity prices and operational performance.
Overall, Suncor's financial health is characterized by strong revenue generation, volatile profitability and free cash flow, high ROE, and relatively high leverage. The company's ability to consistently generate free cash flow and manage its debt levels will be crucial for its long-term financial stability.
Valuation Assessment
Suncor's valuation appears attractive based on several key metrics. The company's P/E ratio of 17.5x is lower than the sector average of 19.5x, suggesting that the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings. Similarly, Suncor's EV/EBITDA ratio of 1.6x is significantly lower than the sector average of 3.5x, further indicating that the company is undervalued relative to its operating cash flow.
However, it is important to consider Suncor's historical valuation and its growth prospects when assessing its current valuation. The company's earnings and cash flow have been volatile in recent years, which may justify a lower valuation multiple. Furthermore, the long-term growth prospects for oil sands production are uncertain, given the increasing focus on environmental sustainability and the transition to a low-carbon economy.
The company's free cash flow yield, calculated as free cash flow divided by market capitalization, provides another perspective on its valuation. The FCF of $2.57B translates to a FCF yield of approximately 3.4%, which is relatively low compared to some other energy companies. This low FCF yield may reflect concerns about Suncor's ability to consistently generate free cash flow in the future.
While Suncor's valuation appears attractive based on its P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios, it is important to consider the company's volatile earnings and cash flow, its uncertain growth prospects, and its relatively low free cash flow yield. These factors suggest that the stock may not be as undervalued as it appears at first glance.
A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis would provide a more comprehensive assessment of Suncor's intrinsic value. However, without detailed projections of the company's future cash flows, it is difficult to determine whether the stock is truly cheap, fair, or expensive. A DCF analysis would need to consider the company's capital expenditures, production growth, commodity price assumptions, and discount rate.
In conclusion, while Suncor's valuation appears attractive based on some metrics, a more thorough analysis is needed to determine its true intrinsic value. The company's volatile earnings and cash flow, uncertain growth prospects, and relatively low free cash flow yield warrant caution. The Hold rating reflects this balanced view of Suncor's valuation.
Risk & Uncertainty
Suncor faces several specific, idiosyncratic risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is the volatility of commodity prices. Suncor's revenue and earnings are highly sensitive to fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices. A sustained decline in commodity prices could significantly reduce the company's profitability and cash flow.
Another key risk is operational execution. Suncor's oil sands operations are complex and capital-intensive, and any operational disruptions or inefficiencies could significantly impact its production and costs. The company has experienced operational challenges in the past, including unplanned outages and equipment failures, which have negatively affected its financial results.
Environmental regulations and concerns pose a significant risk to Suncor's business. The carbon intensity of oil sands production is a major concern for investors and regulators, and Suncor faces increasing pressure to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. More stringent environmental regulations or carbon taxes could significantly increase the company's operating costs and reduce its profitability.
Geopolitical risks also pose a threat to Suncor's operations, particularly in its international assets in Libya and Syria. Political instability, armed conflicts, or changes in government policies could disrupt the company's operations and impair the value of its assets in these regions.
Finally, competition from other energy companies poses a risk to Suncor's market share and profitability. The energy industry is highly competitive, and Suncor faces competition from both domestic and international players. Increased competition could lead to lower prices, reduced margins, and loss of market share.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWSuncor's integrated business model provides a buffer against commodity price volatility, allowing for more stable cash flow generation compared to pure-play upstream producers.
BULL VIEWThe company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases makes it an attractive investment in a rising commodity price environment.
BULL VIEWSuncor's investments in emissions-reducing technologies will allow it to navigate the energy transition and maintain its competitive position in the long term.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWSuncor's high debt levels and volatile free cash flow make it vulnerable to a sustained downturn in commodity prices, potentially jeopardizing its dividend and capital expenditure plans.
BEAR VIEWThe company's oil sands operations are environmentally intensive and face increasing regulatory scrutiny, which could lead to higher costs and reduced production.
BEAR VIEWSuncor's operational track record has been inconsistent, with frequent unplanned outages and cost overruns, raising concerns about its ability to execute its growth strategy effectively.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score SU and 4,400+ other equities.
SUNCOR ENERGY INC exhibits a 9% valuation discount relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a balanced risk/reward profile based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
26.3%
Sector: 3.7%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
58.9%
Sector: 52.7%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
16.5%
Sector: 10.7%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
11.3%
Sector: 6.4%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
